Happy weekend. The details that quietly underpin a retirement plan don't always hold still. This week, one of the numbers retirees count on most just got revised, another came with a countdown attached, and a third may have been quietly wrong for years without anyone noticing. Today's issue is worth reading before October 14.
On The Money Today:
TSCL just revised its 2027 COLA estimate down to 3.5% — the first downward move all year. Official announcement: October 14
Burry’s Stage 2 timeline lands squarely in Q1 or Q2 of 2027
With 8,000 fewer staff, SSA earnings record errors are taking longer to catch
Let's get into it.
BEHIND THE HEADLINE
The blue line is what Social Security has paid out since 2016. The gap above it is what that money actually bought. Benefits have kept pace with inflation in name only — the real-world shortfall now sits at 13.7% and counting, and the latest COLA estimate just moved in the wrong direction.
Keep reading to see 3 moves worth making before October 14.
NEWS
The 2027 COLA estimate just changed — and few Americans noticed. 3 moves to capitalize now (while everyone waits for October 14)
TSCL just revised its 2027 COLA projection — and it moved in the wrong direction. Most Americans missed it entirely, which means most retirees are still planning around a number that no longer reflects what experts expect. There are moves worth making before October 14, and none of them require waiting for the official announcement to get started.
Why it matters: Social Security benefits have already lost 13.7% of buying power since 2016, and even a 3.5% bump in 2027 won't reverse that slide. The retirees who come out ahead won't be the ones who waited for October 14 to decide what to do.
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NEWS
Michael Burry warns the stock market is ‘obviously’ in the first stage of a 2008-style crash. Retirees have 6 to 9 months before Stage 2
Michael Burry isn't backing down from his bearish call, and he's getting more specific. The investor who predicted the 2008 collapse says we're already in Stage 1, drawing direct comparisons to both 2000 and 2008. His timeline puts Stage 2 arriving as early as Q1 2027, right around the time most retirees are finalizing their income plans for the year.
Why it matters: The S&P 500 just hit a record high and the Fed is weighing another rate hike this month — the exact kind of complacency Burry says preceded both previous collapses. For retirees still carrying heavy equity exposure, a 6-to-9-month window is not an abstract number.
MUST READ
Born before 1966? You may be getting the wrong Social Security check — here’s the truth US retirees must know (and the crucial step to take now)
Most retirees assume the SSA has their records right, but there’s a lesser-known factor in how your monthly benefit is calculated that could mean you’ve been underpaid for months or even years. It has nothing to do with the age you claimed. And with the agency now operating at its smallest workforce since 1967 after thousands of staff cuts, the chances of it getting flagged without your involvement are dropping fast.
Why it matters: Each year in your earnings record that’s wrong or missing pulls down the average the SSA uses to set your benefit — and you’d have no way of knowing unless you looked. The process to fix it is open now, but it’s getting slower.
MONEY IQ
For every year you delay claiming Social Security past full retirement age, your benefit grows by roughly how much?
ALSO MAKING THE ROUNDS TODAY
Scott Bessent says the bond market rout is something the house plays percentages on, even as 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2002
Tim Tebow is pausing ties with a Christian touring company after investigators found it used faith-based messaging to push attendees toward courses costing up to $40K
She raised four kids, has $1 million saved and a paid-off home, and she wants to rent for simplicity. Dave Ramsey says that’s the wrong call
Mercedes-Benzes and BMWs turned up submerged in a New Jersey parking lot after the storm — and police say the cars didn’t end up there by accident
MONEY IQ ANSWER: HOW DID YOU DO?
The correct answer is C) 8%. For every year you delay claiming past your full retirement age — up to age 70 — Social Security permanently increases your monthly benefit by 8%. Wait from 67 to 70 and that’s a 24% larger check for the rest of your life. Which makes getting your earnings record right not just a bookkeeping matter — it’s the foundation everything else gets built on.
That's a wrap for today! Before you go, we'd love to know what you thought of today's newsletter. Hit REPLY if you have more to share — we read every one.
See you soon with another quick roundup of the financial news that matters.
